In recently reading Nate Silver’s book on prediction(The Signal and the Noise), the difficulty in creating a viable vision for the future came to mind. Most leadership books discuss vision and the importance of creating a vision for an organization through the involvement of a leader in the process are discussed in minute detail. Vision provides direction for an organization. It is generally agreed that a mission creates a foundation protocol and meaning for the organization whereas a vision provides an organization with goals and objectives for the organization over a specified time period. We also know that the shorter the time period, the more the vision is affected by budgetary concerns and the possibility for the vision becoming a reality. The further out we go in time, the more our vision becomes more of a dream than a reality. Following Silver’s rationale, the signal is clear in the short term and less clear over time. Noise or intervening happenings cloud reality and decrease the possibilities of success in attaining the vision over the long run. For example, the economic meltdown during the first decade of this century not only affected the financial bottom-line of organizations, it also affected visionary possibilities for the future. Other crisis events will also impact our organizations.
What this all translates to is that visions and specifically vision statements are not forever. This does not mean that leaders should not create organizational visions. It does mean first that a systems perspective is critical for a leader. A leader must look at outside as well as inside factors that will impact whether our goals and objectives can be met in order to make our vision come to life. We may have to change our goals and objectives to keep our vision in sight or let noise hide the impact of factors which will prevent us from making the vision clear and attainable. Our planning activities need to be ongoing. Our vision as well as our goals and objectives need to be reviewed on a yearly basis and changed as necessary. Leaders become our guide in the process. We know that most predictions fail for some reason or other. New methodologies are constantly being developed to improve our prediction abilities. One simple technique for leaders to use is a percentage chance that our vision will become reality. If the percentage is less than fifty percent, we better get back to the drawing board.
Rowitz On Leadership 